4.3.1 Epidemiological and Disease-Specific Background
Describe, and provide the latest data on, the stage and type of epidemic
and its dynamics (including breakdown by age, gender, population group and
geographical location, wherever possible), the most affected population groups,
and data on drug resistance, where relevant. (Information on drug resistance
is of specific relevance if the proposal includes anti-malarial drugs or
insecticides. In the case of TB components, indicate, in addition, the treatment
regimes in use or to be used and the reasons for their use.)
The current official estimate of the number of people living with HIV/AIDS
is 840,000, with a 30% increase in reported HIV cases from 2004 to 2005.
The epidemic has now reached the exponential phase of growth. In the absence
of successful interventions, a government-UN joint assessment report estimated
that a new wave of HIV transmission could cause 10 million people to be infected
with HIV in China by 2010. Though the estimated overall prevalence is between
0.05% and 0.08%, high HIV prevalence rates have been reported in specific
population subgroups such as IDUs, former blood plasma donors, SW, and MSM.
China is host to several simultaneous HIV epidemics. HIV first
appeared in the early 1990s among IDUs the country’s far western and southern
provinces. HIV is now found among IDUs in every province, with prevalence
ranging from 5-8% on average among this group. A second epidemic was recognized
in 1998 among blood plasma donors who acquired HIV through unsafe blood
collection practices and contaminated medical equipment in the 1990’s.
Though there are wide variations in prevalence between geographic areas
for this group, a 2003 epidemiological survey showed an overall prevalence
of 2.7%.
While injecting drug use continues to drive the spread of HIV
in China, sex (heterosexual and homosexual) is an increasingly important
mode of transmission. The proportion of female HIV cases has increased
from 19.4% in 2000 to 39% in 2004. Many of China’s estimated 6 million
sex workers are women from poor rural areas who move to large cities seeking
economic opportunities but who can only find work in the sex trade. They
often lack the skills to negotiate safe sex and the power to refuse unprotected
sex. Disease patterns are beginning to indicate the dangers of this combination.
Among sex workers, the HIV prevalence rate is about 1% (though epidemiological
surveys indicated prevalence rates as high as 6.7% in some areas), unprotected
sex is common (with regular condom use ranging from 14% to 60% in a recent
survey). In addition, a significant percentage of sex workers also inject
drugs. (At sentinel surveillance sites, the proportion of HIV positive
sex workers who injected drugs was between 25 and 100 percent in Guangxi, Hunan, and Chongqing.)
Sexually transmitted infections are increasing rapidly in China,
raising concerns about how quickly HIV/AIDS may spread from high-risk groups
into the general population. In 2002, for example, the incidence of reported
STIs was nine times greater than in 1986 and almost two times greater than
in 1996. The incidence of syphilis and gonorrhea increased approximately
twenty times and 2.6 times respectively from 1990 to 1998. There were 860,000
new STI cases reported in 2000, but the actual number of new STI cases
is thought to be five to ten times higher with many STI patients seeking
treatment in private clinics, where cases are often not reported.
HIV among MSM is also on the rise. There is limited surveillance
data on the HIV infection rate among MSM, but a number of surveys suggest
that HIV prevalence among this group is between 1% and 3% percent in a
number of Chinese cities. Behavioral surveys indicate that regular condom
use is low, that there is limited understanding of the risk of HIV infection,
and that a significant percentage (more than 25%) of MSM also have sex
with women. Chinese experts estimate that there are at least 10-20 million
MSM in China. Given the high HIV prevalence rates, and the high levels
of risk behaviors among this population, MSM represent a significant bridge
population in China.
A rural-to-urban migrant population of approximately 120 million
is also at high risk of contracting and spreading HIV. Most migrants are
young and either unmarried or living apart from their spouses and children.
Surveys indicate that most have a very low awareness and understanding
of HIV and STIs. Increasing sexual transmission of HIV is of particular
concern in China’s current social environment. Rapid economic change has
created millions of migrant laborers seeking an escape from widespread
rural poverty, and there is a large surplus of males due to sex selection
before birth (the ratio of newborn boys to girls in China is approximately
116:100).
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